Japan, despite its relentless support for US Asia-Pacific policy, is mindful of its national interests. From this perspective, a sharp decline in cooperation with Russia will not bring any benefit to Tokyo, since it will strengthen the Russian-Chinese alliance, reduce Japan's influence in the crucial region for the country, and further eliminate the illusory possibility of a dispute. territory in the vicinity of the southern Kuril Islands settled in favor of Tokyo. Certainly, the renewed Kishida government will tread carefully and avoid impacts on Japan's critical energy sector.
As for nuclear power plants, polls show a rise in support for plans to partially restart nuclear power plants due to instability in global energy markets caused by sanctions against Russia. Based on these surveys, Fumio Kishida has made a number of cautious statements that several nuclear power plants will be commissioned in addition to the ten currently in operation (as of June 2022).
In 2021, the gross installed capacity of Japan's power plants was 312 GW, including distributed generation, which generates about 980 billion kWh of electrical power. Currently, bodies such as the International Energy Agency and the Japan Institute of Energy Economics forecast that power generation will not change significantly until 2030 and will remain around current levels, mainly due to the current downturn in Japan's economy. , the drop in commercial activity and due to a gradual decline in population.
It took Japan more than a decade of hard work to review its comprehensive energy policy, which basically went back to zero after the tragic events of March 2011, which saw a sharp increase in the burning of crude oil, coal and natural gas for power. thermal. floors. Another aggravated problem is the diversification of the primary energy resources required for the conversion of petrochemicals and natural gas, not to mention the related industries. However, today the country is returning to the situation where it cannot do without nuclear power plants.
Looking at the overall situation with the long-term implementation of Japan's energy policy, it is complicated by the large emerging competitors in the world market. In 2021, China overtook Japan as the world's largest LNG importer, and Chinese companies are actively seeking new LNG projects and developing existing ones abroad (in Asia, Africa, Latin America, not to mention working with Russia and building the power of Siberia). -2 pipeline) to ensure they have the supplies they need today and for the foreseeable future. The same applies to oil deposits outside of China. Europe is also helping to radically reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas and is therefore looking for alternative suppliers. Taken together, these developments will only increase global competition for limited oil and gas resources until new capacity is built and brought online, which will take several years.
On August 10, 2022, the Japanese cabinet, which had been in office since October 2021, resigned in a panel after its approval ratings fell from 59% to 46%, causing voter ratings to drop. approval.Major shakeups in the Japanese government. This step was mainly due to problems in the deteriorating economic situation due to rising prices for imported primary energy raw materials, as well as uncertainty in the long-term supply of these raw materials from Russia. In June, Russian oil imports fell to zero, prompting several companies to sign additional deals with Persian Gulf suppliers. As a result, Japan's dependence on oil imports from the region rose to more than 90%, essentially nullifying many years of diversification efforts.
Japan's trade deficit reached all-time highs in July 2022 and was the key driver along with rising commodity pricesthe drop in the yen-dollar exchange rate. Since the beginning of 2022, the Japanese currency has lost about 18%, another 25-year high above 128 yen to the dollar. This led to a significant drop in domestic business activity, while export-oriented manufacturers, which form the backbone of Japan's economy, began to increase exports in order to obtain more US dollars. The Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, determined additional measures to smooth the situation. This included not only the resumption of oil exports from Russia, but also the renewal of contracts to purchase LNG.Sakhalin energy, the new operator of Sakhalin-2 created under the August 2022 decree of Mikhail Mishustin, Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.
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At the end of July 2022 the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industrysent a clear signal to Japan's oil traders, and says the Japanese government is not asking companies to continue to refuse to buy Russian oil to support Western sanctions, as only companies should decide who to buy oil from. This is, of course, a somewhat hypocritical statement since the Japanese government sets and knows the import quotas for energy resources.outside the houseWhere do these resources come from? Regarding imports of Russian gas,so far none of the eight Japanese companiesReceiving LNG from Sakhalin-2 said that it intends to suspend the contracts. To complete the picture, we must mention one more piece of information: regarding the purchasing structure of Japanese companies, Hiroshima Gas' Sakhalin LNG represents up to 50% of this structure, while Kyushu Electric Power and Toho Gas represent up to 20% of this structure. % and up to 10% for Tohoku Electric Power and Saibu Gas. The Japanese groups Mitsui and Mitsubishi plan to notify the Russian government in early September that they will maintain their stakes in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project (12.5% and 10% respectively), albeit under a new operator.
This has practical confirmation: even with large drops in physical volumes of oil (down 65% compared to H1 2021) and coal (down 40% compared to H1 2021), LNG Sourced from Russia is much less vulnerable to this trend, and its sales to Japan at the end of 2022 are expected to show a moderate increase compared to 2021. Interestingly, Japan has complied with sanctions against Russia,in monetary terms, Russian exportsof mineral raw materials and other natural resources to Japan increased by 45% compared to the same period last year (January to July 2021) due to a significant increase in world prices.
In July 2022, Takeshi Hashimoto, president of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, a large transportation company, admitted in an interviewfinancial times that Japan has no choice but to buy Russian gasHe said Japan cannot stop buying Russian LNG due to rising energy prices and limited nuclear capacity. Mister. Hashimoto believes that Japan needs the gas it buys from Russia at relatively low prices under long-term contracts to meet its basic energy needs. While the future of Russian LNG in the Japanese market looks quite promising (at least until 2025), things are more complicated when it comes to oil, which may be directly related to Japan's plans to partially restore its nuclear power. and increase their share of energy. 20% generation. until 2030.
It should be noted that in recent years Japan has exported on average about 6-7 million tons of crude oil from Sakhalin-1 and Russia under contracts with Rosneft every year. 2021 Japanimported a total of 145 million tonsof oil, making it one of the largest oil consumers in the world. However, in 2012-2014, Japan imported more than 200 million tons of oil a year, which was lost with the closure of all nuclear power plants following the Fukushima disaster and the goal of replacing power generation capacity timely, including the direct combustion of crude oil in thermal power plants. Overall, there are decreases in the purchase of oil and its partial substitution by LNGthe basis of Japanese energy policy, as well as large-scale plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 through the ubiquitous development of new and renewable energy sources (RES, hydrogen, biofuels, etc.). Thus, a phased (i.e., for a few years) ban on Russian oil imports announced by the Kishida government, which it presents as part of the sanctions push against Russia, is essentially a direct continuation of sustained domestic trends, in rather than being associated with may be directly related to current geopolitical circumstances.
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In essence, the government of Japan appears to be diligently executing the decisions of its Western allies, while at the same time tackling strictly practical tasks without compromise.Your own energy security. Certainly, for a short time, a drop in Russian oil imports will increase Japan's dependence on the big Persian Gulf exporters, thus violating the principle of diversification, but these oil volumes are not so large as to become a problem. second to none for cooperation with Russia. be phased out. Companies from Algeria, Nigeria, Venezuela, Indonesia and other African, Asian and Latin American countries have already indicated their willingness to substitute Russian oil in the future.
In May 2022, information was released from the EU, which intended to stop imports of Russian oil within six months and stop imports of petrochemicals by the end of 2022. G7 countries, including Japan, supported this decision. tokyo on the other sidein no hurry to make such commitments, and although in 2022 it will officially announce its refusal to buy Russian oil, this will entail a lot of reserves, and the deadlines will be pushed back to 2023-2024. First, it will give Japanese companies time to prepare and sign contracts with alternative suppliers. Second, the government hopes that none of this is necessary. The special military operation will end, new geopolitical combinations will emerge that need to be considered in the long term. Furthermore, there is no absolute certainty that the sanctions will have the desired effect and force Moscow to make concessions.
Japan, despite its relentless support for US Asia-Pacific policy, is mindful of its national interests. From this perspective, a sharp decline in cooperation with Russia will not bring any benefit to Tokyo, since it will strengthen the Russian-Chinese alliance, reduce Japan's influence in the crucial region for the country, and further eliminate the illusory possibility of a dispute. territory in the vicinity of the southern Kuril Islands settled in favor of Tokyo. Certainly, the renewed Kishida government will tread carefully and avoid impacts on Japan's critical energy sector.
As for nuclear power plants, polls show a rise in support for plans to partially restart nuclear power plants due to instability in global energy markets caused by sanctions against Russia. Based on this investigation, Fumio Kishida made a series of cautious statements about the fact that several nuclear power plantsexpected to be commissionedin addition to the ten currently in operation (as of June 2022). In general, the nuclear reactors currently in operation do not contribute more than 2% of the total electricity generation. Connecting four more to the grid will increase that number to almost 3%, which is still not enough to make up for potentially lost volumes of Russian oil and coal. If these various units are successfully restarted in the winter of 2022, the Japanese government will continue the course it has taken, especially since this policy is enshrined in the current strategy documents.
In October 2021, the cabinet approved the sixthstrategic energy planby 2030, looking towards 2050. The main goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 46% compared to 2013 levels and double the proportion of new and renewable energy sources in Japan (from 18% to 36%). Total energy balance compared to current levels. By the way, Japan is showing remarkable progress inRenewable energy development: Japan has more than 70 GW of solar power and about 6 GW of wind power. Furthermore, there are plans to increase renewable generation capacity to more than 100 GW by 2030. However, to fully understand the situation, we need to look at the following data.
Ab 2021,gross installed powerof Japan's power plants total 312 GW, including distributed generation, which supplies about 980 billion kW of electrical power per hour. Currently, bodies such as the International Energy Agency and the Japan Institute of Energy Economics forecast that power generation will not change significantly until 2030 and will remain around current levels, mainly due to the current downturn in Japan's economy. , the drop in commercial activity and due to a gradual decline in population. That is, the level of generation necessary toReplacement of thermal power plants by RES plants. However, renewable energy cannot guarantee a reliable and uninterrupted power supply on the scale of the entire Japanese economy. In addition, Japan faces a shortage of suitable land for the construction of powerful solar power plants and wind farms, and very strict laws regulating economic activity in marine areas prevent the construction of wind turbines in coastal areas.
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It should be noted that not all existing RES capacity is used continuously: at these plants, power production is intermittent, posing a significant barrier to its use to power critical infrastructure assets such as integrated power plants, social services etc . In the context of the energy transition, nuclear power plants are becoming “external helpers” to reach the limit of 30% energy self-sufficiency in 2030 (ability to self-supply basic household needs) and to cope with seasonal consumption peaks of energy by reducing crude oil. oil and coal imports.
The Sixth Strategic Energy Planmeans increasing the share of nuclear power plants in gross electricity generation to 20-22% by 2030. However, this will require the commissioning of two-thirds of existing power plant units (54 in total), many of them which are considered obsolete and will soon have to be dismantled simply because their expected useful life is coming to an end. Of course, it's common to extend the life of individual engines up to 60 years; however, Japan had serious consequences with the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in 2011 and such an extension scenario seems quite unlikely. As of 2022,only one reactor at the Oma nuclear power plantwill be completed; Construction began in 2010 and commissioning is scheduled for 2026. From a purely technical point of view, therefore, the VI. The Strategic Energy Plan foresees figures to be reached in 2030, but without the construction of new plants, the generation of nuclear power plants will fall below 10% of the generation structure already in 2040.
In May 2022, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said there were no plans to build new nuclear power plants in Japan, despite growing challenges to the country's energy security. However, Prime Minister Kishida said in late August that Japan would study the possibilityconstruction of nuclear power plants. Apparently, Japanese officials are beginning to realize that without nuclear power, there can be no hope of zero-carbon status. Furthermore, the turmoil in global energy markets is likely to persist for a long time. Therefore, in the near future, the Japanese government will turn to nuclear energy and try to develop it based on stricter safety principles formulated and successfully implemented after the Fukushima disaster.
It took Japan more than a decade of hard work to review its comprehensive energy policy, which basically went back to zero after the tragic events of March 2011, which saw a sharp increase in the burning of crude oil, coal and natural gas for power. thermal. floors. Another aggravated problem is the diversification of the primary energy resources required for the conversion of petrochemicals and natural gas, not to mention the related industries. However, today the country is returning to the situation where it cannot do without nuclear power plants.
Looking at the overall situation with the long-term implementation of Japan's energy policy, it is complicated by the large emerging competitors in the world market. In 2021, China overtook Japan asthe world's largest importer of LNGand Chinese companies are actively looking for new LNG projects and developing existing ones abroad (in Asia, Africa, Latin America, not to mention work with Russia and the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline) to ensure that supplies have what is needed today. and in the foreseeable future. The same applies to oil deposits outside of China. Europe is also helping to radically reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas and is therefore looking for alternative suppliers. Taken together, these developments will only increase global competition for limited oil and gas resources until new capacity is built and brought online, which will take several years.
The EU's advantage lies at least in the geographical proximity of its member states, allowing them to transfer across borders the energy resources that individual national consumers need most at any given time. Japan clearly does not have this advantage and must rely on itself and adjust to the pace of interaction with its strategically important suppliers, including Russia. Hence other statements from Tokyo, such as possiblyCap on Russian oil prices(which is absolutely not feasible without the involvement of India and China) should not be taken literally, but only interpreted through the lens of Japan's desire to prove its loyalty to its Western allies. In reality, even if Japan could cut off Russian energy sources, this will only be feasible in the distant future, when the situation around nuclear power plants clears up and generation from renewable energy sources reaches around 50%.